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Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

In that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution of Stance and Closed Issues

In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. And, if Europe is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, the cap which was tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing young people can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. One idea involves announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism

However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has led UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Strategy & Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe faces cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It includes only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from concluding that this renders America an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation & The Ghost from the Past

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an attempt to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is part of a group of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Risk and A Prudent Memory

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be prudent of him to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.