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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."